The Mets Should Trade For Ken Giles

Courtesy of Houston Chronicle

This may not be the move that has Mets fans salivating, and there are a few drawbacks here, but trading for Ken Giles can be a great move for the Mets to make.

  Giles recently was optioned to Triple A after he well... He said some choice words that were easily detected by viewers. Some believe that the expletive Giles said was hurled at manager A.J. Hinch.

  
As much as it’s easy to point to that being the sole reason for Giles being sent to Triple A, it goes deeper than that. He has had several blow ups this season, and it appears that his rough personal go in the postseason last year has lingered into this season. Simply put, he doesn’t have the confidence he once had.

  It appears as if his relationship with the organization can easily be mended if he performs well in Triple A while improving his attitude, and returning to his shutdown form.

  However, that may be a long shot, as he appears to be frustrated, and needs a change of scenery. On top of that, the Astros are a good enough team, that they don’t need to sit through his antics and wait for him to get over his problems.

   Despite this, one team that can sit through his antics and be the exact change of scenery Giles is in desperate need for is the Mets. 

   See, we all know this has been an ahem, trying year for the Mets to put it kindly. This is the time for the Mets to start taking fliers and lottery tickets. Simply put, the Mets should take in as many buy low opportunities as they can because they have nothing to lose. 

   Not only could this be a nice opportunity for the team because of Giles' past success, but because despite how he had no confidence at points, he did endure some bad luck. 

   He currently has a 2.25 FIP and a 2.97 SIERA. On top of this, he has a astronomically high BABIP at .366 and a Ground ball to Fly ball ratio that is still along his career lines. Another stat that indicates bad luck is his 60.8% Left On Base %. He also has remained stingy when it comes to allowing homers, as his HR/9 is at 0.59 

   Giles also has greatly improved his control, as he is walking only 2.3% of the batters he has faced this year (less than 1 per 9). It may have come at the cost of strikeouts (24% of the batters he's faced or 9.10 per 9), but he is still inducing whiffs and chases.

   He has gotten hitters to chase outside the zone at the same rate he always had (36.4%), and is inducing swinging strikes (16.4%). This seems to indicate that he is still fooling hitters. 

   However, as much as all of these numbers would indicate better fortunes are on the horizon, that is not exactly the case. This is due to his exit velocity against skyrocketing, as it is 90.5 MPH compared to it being less than 87.5 MPH the past two seasons. 

   Essentially, what I think is going on is what I like to call Jon Gray syndrome. What Jon Gray syndrome is exactly, is when a pitcher posts good walk strikeout (and even above average homer allowance), but severely underperform said peripherals due to a lack of pitch placement/strategy. This name was inspired by a great Fangraphs article written shortly after Gray himself, was demoted to Triple A.

   Gray had a lack of proper sequencing, and tended to leak too many pitches over the middle of the plate, and Giles has a very similar problem, specifically with his fastball.

   Now, yes, Giles of course is not throwing the ball high enough in the zone for someone that throws as hard as he does; that's a given. What is interesting about these comparisons here though, is that he is also throwing the ball in belt high (and specifically right down the middle) far more than in 2016 and '17. 

   His fastball placement is again, very interesting here, and the fact that he is throwing it lower in the zone and down the middle shows the lack of aggressiveness and confidence in his fastball. 

   His slider though, is still a highly effective pitch. His overall whiff % of 53.9 on the pitch is ridiculous, and ranks in the 94th percentile!

   The 15.2% he registered with his fastball at this point though has been atrocious, and it is time that he reverts back to his 2016-17 form of fastball throwing. During that time, his whiff rate on the pitch was at 20.8%, not a very good rate (59th percentile), but still could play off the slider very nicely.

   The point in all of this is that Giles still has the tools to be a highly effective pitcher, and he is at his best when he attacks the upper part of the zone with his fastball, and uses that to play off what is still a well located slider that has some late movement.

   Because of this, it is highly imperative that the Mets buy low on Giles, and can use him to fit into whatever plans they have for next season.

   For example, if they decide not to blow it up and contend for next season, a revamped and rejuvenated Giles would be a great pitcher to have at the back end of the bullpen. If the team wants to rebuild on the other hand, Giles can be great trade bait since he will be under team control until the 2021 season.

   As for who to trade to Houston for Giles, I can see them either wanting Jeurys Familia. It's a trade that would work for both sides, as Familia would give Houston a great reliever that has had some blowups himself, but more often than not is a highly effective pitcher.

   Familia is also someone that Houston can trade for and be happy with even with him being an expiring contract, as Giles is someone that the Astros appear to have run out of patience with.

   For the Mets, this is a trade they'd also be happy with, as Familia likely will not fetch the Mets any elite prospects or promising Major Leaguers with little service time, as he is like I mentioned, a free agent at the end of the year. Also, Familia will be one of the better relievers likely available, but his maddening inconsistencies (on top of the contract situation) makes this for about as good of a return as the team can get.

   Giles would certainly be a bit of a project, but the Mets would be a great fit for him, and could get his career (and either our rebuild or aspirations for contending next year) on the right track.

   All Stats and Information are accurate as of July 12th, and are courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball