Jarred Kelenic Could Be A Great Player

Courtesy of Metsmerized Online

  As the MLB Draft approached last month, the consensus seemed to be that the Mets were going to select Jonathan India out of Florida state. 

   Mets fans (myself included) were high on him to the point that he would be the 3rd basemen of the future (something we have desperately needed with David Wright undergoing a modern day tragedy).

  However, once it came time to select, India had been snagged by the Reds; a move that honestly makes little sense (Eugenio Suarez has played a fine 3rd base and is under contract for the next 6 seasons while Nick Senzel, a 3rd baseman, is being moved himself to give him a path to the majors).

  With that in mind, when the Mets came to pick, they selected Jarred Kelenic. Now, Kelenic is an interesting prospect, as he is among the oldest high schoolers in the draft class (he'll be 19 in a few days).

  Despite being an older high schooler when he was selected, Kelenic was seen as an advanced bat. Essentially, what makes him interesting is that he is as advanced as a college bat, but was a few years younger. Basically, the team selected a much younger college player.

  When looking at his swing, it is safe to say that Kelenic has a very nice one, as well as good bat speed. This is highly encouraging, as it goes to show that he will be able to catch up with high velocity as he moves up the organizational ladder.

  Kelenic possesses nice swing mechanics that are smooth and easy to repeat. His leg kick is controlled, and you can see that the leg kick is part of his timing mechanism. Not only that, but the leg kick is also a major facilitator toward him winding back and getting ready to attack the ball. Overall, the leg kick is being talked about a lot here because it is a catalyst in the operation of his silky smooth swing.

  After the leg kick, you can see that he has a level swing, which is not necessarily a bad thing despite the current emphasis of launch angle. That is because like I mentioned in my article about Michael Conforto, certain hitters are better off keeping a level swing on the ball and not concerning themselves with launch angle. It appears as if Kelenic will be one of those guys.

   On top of some sound hitting mechanics, Kelenic is also very good in the field. I don’t think that he will stick at center field, but he does have an outside chance at sticking there. He also would project to likely getting starts at center in a lineup that emphasizes offense. 

    More likely than not though, he is better off moving to right, as he has an elite arm, and is a better athlete than simply moving to left (although some great fielders go to left over right strictly out of preference). Overall, I can see him becoming an above average defensive outfielder at a corner spot, while being slightly below average at center. 

    In terms of his recent results, Kelenic has been making the Mets look great by picking him so far in his young career. He already tore up Rookie ball, and earned a promotion to Kingsport earlier this week. I believe he can easily end the year in Brooklyn, and if the Mets really wanted to, they could have him up in the big leagues by May of 2021 (I say May instead of April, as unless rules regarding service time changes, this would be to keep him under team control for an extra season).

   Once he gets called up to the Majors (which I can definitely see happening), he has a very high upside. He is a safe bet to at the very least, be a starting right fielder that is worth 1.5-2 wins a season while providing league average power (.175-.180 ISO) and be a solid hitter (.270 average and at least 100-105 wRC+). 

   I think his upside is a bit tougher to project, but I do believe that he has the upside of being a 3-4 win player throughout his prime. He reminds me a lot of Christian Yelich, but with less speed (clocked him at a 4.30-4.35 home to first which would be roughly league average, while Yelich is a very fast player at a 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed). 

   Despite this though, the hit tools are very similar, and same with the athleticism. Not only that, but Kelenic registered a speed score of 8.3, higher than any of the ones Yelich posted in the minors (not a great measurement of speed, but there's no video of Kelenic as a Met in games yet). 

   I can see Kelenic playing at a Yelich like mold in terms of being a very productive hitter that succeeds despite a low launch angle, and being a good fielder. This type of skillset is one that is very valuable, and would make Kelenic into a very valuable Major Leaguer.