Michael Conforto Might Be Turning His Season Around

NY Post

  I may be a bit biased as a Met fan when I say this, but I am a huge fan of Michael Conforto. I've been fan of his play for a while now, and that's why it felt heartbreaking to see him have what can be described as an inconsistent season.

   However, he has been catching fire (no, I don't like the hunger games, that was just a coincidence) as of late. This hot streak he has been on has real staying power, and I'll explain why.

   Since June 13th, Conforto has posted a ridiculous stat line. What makes me feel as if this stat line is more than just a streak is the fact that Conforto has been showing a great approach at the plate.

   He has been walking more than he's striking out in this span, and it is perhaps the best indicator that Michael is no longer pressing too much at the plate. He has the tendency to do this (as seen in his 2016 struggles and the seemingly streaky year he's had).

   Essentially, when he presses too much, he gets too pull happy rather than playing to his strengths (which is the ability to hit the ball to all fields). As a result, he not only will roll over on more balls to his pull side, but will also become easier to shift against.

   When he presses, his swing also has a tendency to get long.



   It appears that he's fixed his approach in regards to waiting on pitches and not trying to do too much with it (conventional baseball term, I know, but it does apply here). He appears as if he is on to what was behind his struggles. Here's what he said in terms of making the necessary adjustments:

   “I hit a couple of balls the other way in the Subway Series and it didn’t feel like I had much behind it. Then you go back and look at video and see I am kind of at extension when hitting the ball the other way where as last year I was kind of catching it in my swing and I was getting a little extra behind it.”

   Clearly, Conforto is both a smart and self-aware hitter. He keeps an open mind, and is very coachable. These are all traits that good hitters possess, and these will help him continue to turn his season around.

   As you can see here, he has been making the necessary adjustments to how he's been putting the ball in play:

	GB%	FB%	LD%	IFFB%	Launch Ang	Exit Velo	Pull%	Pull FB%
4/5-6/12	42.2	40.6	17.2	13.5	13	86.5	37.5	23
Since	44.4	33.3	22.2	0	6.9	90.7	37	35.7

 Stats are provided by Fangraphs and Statcast

  What's interesting here is you'll see that he has been making less of a concentrated effort toward putting the ball in the air, and is instead focused on hitting hard line drives. This is something Conforto has always been good at, and is at his best when he implements this approach.

   Truth of the matter here is that some hitters approaches and swings just aren't suited for the so called "fly ball revolution". Hitters such as Christian Yelich have shown that they can excel without needing to hit tons of fly balls.

   Not only has he been hitting the ball lower, but he's also been spraying it to the whole field more often. Even though his pull % is literally the same (still not bad though, as pulled fly balls are a great way to manufacture power if the hitter is capable of it), it is not an issue since he is taking it the other way and becoming more difficult to defend.

   As you can see here, he has been focusing on hitting the ball with authority the other way:

Since June 13th

Before June 13th:

   It is clear that his looking the other way approach is working for him. One thing that worries me a bit though is how Rockies pitchers were pitching to him. They likely recognized that Conforto's outside swing rate has gone up to over 30% since his bat caught fire, and have seen his swing tendencies against fastballs go like this:

   In comparison to how it was earlier in the year

   As a result, they have begun to feed him fastballs and here's how that looked:

   It's interesting that Conforto has been swinging such a hot bat despite swinging at fewer pitches in the zone and more outside (31.5 Outside swing% and 57.8 Zone swing% since June 13th and a 27.8 Oswing% and 64.1 Zswing% before). However, it appears as if his swing has been retooled, and its more of his offensive talent shining through his improved swing more than anything. 

   He is far quicker to the ball as a result, and can do damage to pitches he once struggled with like this

   So do I think Conforto is headed for another slump soon? I can't tell you with confidence whether he does or doesn't; baseball is a mysterious game. However, I do believe that he is indeed fully back into the swing of things after his gruesome shoulder injury last August.

   I also believe that if his quote mentioned before is of any indication, then he is an astute enough hitter to adjust against the adjustments pitchers have been making toward him. At the end of the day, isn't that what all elite hitters do?

   All Stats and Information are accurate as of June 22nd, and are courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball