What Is Going On With Amed Rosario?

Courtesy of SNY.tv

  It is safe to say that Amed Rosario has had a rough go so far in the majors. However, the tools are there, and he has a chance to turn things around.
 
   To date, Rosario's Major League career has consisted of a poor overall statline. What really sticks out from all of this though is his strikeout rate. He is currently striking out in 24.3% of his at bats. This is improved from last year's pitiful 28.8% mark, but it is still disappointing due to how Rosario came up to the majors being known as a tough player to punch out.

   What has led to this? A high chase rate, of course. Now, this is something that is common in young hitters, but this has been the cause of Rosario's tumultuous big league tenure.

   As much as a high amount of swings outside the zone is common with young major leaguers (as the quality of breaking pitches are superior to what they see in the minors, and they aren't used to seeing that amount of high quality stuff). However, here is what I found with high chase hitters in comparison to more disciplined hitters since the 2006 season:

	AVG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Low Chase	0.259	12	17.5	0.334	102
High Chase	0.263	5.1	21.1	0.314	93

Info is from Fangraphs.com Low chase was 20% or below. High chase was 37.5% and up.

   When considering low chase hitters, I realize that Rosario will never have an outside swing% as low as that (and likely will never make its way under 33%). That's because he is who he is, and he's swung this way for the entirety of the time he's spent playing baseball. However, the point remains the same. Extreme chase tendencies have a way of cutting a hitters offensive production far more than low chase tendencies.

   This is because when a hitter chases pitches less often, he becomes difficult to pitch to, as pitchers know they cannot get him to swing after pitches out of the strike zone. In a sense, this makes the pitcher more predictable to the hitter, as the pitcher will need to throw more strikes in order to get the hitter to get out. Because of this, the hitter will get better pitches to hit, and thus, is more productive at the dish.

   Enough about praising a good eye at the plate, as this is about Amed. I am not a severe over reactor like ESPN's David Schoenfield when he claimed that he may not actually be that good. Oh, how quickly people jump off the bandwagon.

   What I find interesting is that Rosario's fielding has been subpar as well this season. Last year, it was solid, as he has a DRS of 1 and a UZR/150 of 3.5, which are encouraging marks considering his short sample size. However, his defense has taken a dip, as he has cost the team 2 runs after saving them one last year (and in over 100 fewer innings), while having a UZR/150 of -2.6 (I like regular UZR better, but the per 150 helps since its still early in the season).

   Rosario is still very fast, as his sprint speed this year is at 28.9 ft/sec, but is down from last years elite mark of 30.1. I've noticed that sprint speed goes back and forth year by year, but it is still interesting to see how he has taken a dip across the board so far in regards to fielding and base running.

   I think this can all be chalked up to him just being a young guy trying to make adjustments in the majors, but is trying too hard to make them. For the most part, he's improved his chase rate (it's still not good at all being at 40.2%, but far better than last years mark of 45.5%), while also swinging at the same rate of pitches within the strike zone as last year.

   On top of that, he has also improved his average exit velocity from a weak 84.3 mph to a far better 88.7 mph. It is a very nice improvement, and also has a 91.7 mph exit velocity on balls hit in the air. Now of course, hitting the ball hard isn't a main priority for someone of his skillset (as it hasn't been for other speedsters like Dee Gordon). Nonetheless though, it is still a highly encouraging development.

   He has also been spraying the ball a good amount, and overall, his batted ball profile looks pretty good. What is also interesting is his .325 BABIP. Considering his speed and how he has been hitting the ball, it is safe to say this is far too low, and is bound for improvement. This is even more significant considering his BABIP sat at .330 last year even with all the weak contact he was making.

   Overall, it appears as if Amed Rosario has improved across the board with his offensive peripherals. He's hitting more balls in the air, is hitting said balls with more authority and has been making efforts to cut down on his anxiousness on pitches out of the zone.

   The only thing that I can say is that he is likely also thinking/pressing too much, and that he needs to let the game come to him. He is an incredibly talented player, and has the chance to be an occasional All Star. The only thing that needs to happen to make this all become reality though, is patience.

   All stats and info are up to date as of May 8th, and are courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Savant.