Seth Lugo: Potential Strikeout Ace?

Courtesy of NY Daily News

     So Seth Lugo has been a bit of an enigma so far this year. On the surface, he doesn't seem to be having that bad of a year in his first bout of relieving. I mean, a 3.77 ERA doesn't look all that bad when paired with an improved strikeout rate. However, there is more than what meets the eye here, and honestly, Lugo's peripherals have been terrible. I believe though that there is hidden potential in him that can make him a truly elite strikeout pitcher, and put him over the top.
   When I mentioned Lugo's bad peripherals, I'm not kidding. He has been walking a career high 11.3% of the batters he's faced this season when he hadn't walked more than 8.1% in his other two seasons. He's given up the gopher-ball quite a bit, as his HR/9 is currently at 1.26, and overall, this has his FIP at a ghastly 5.07.

   In spite of all of this, Lugo strikes me as an interesting pitcher. The moment he caught my eye was likely the moment he caught the eye of most other baseball fans when his high spin curveball was put on display. Well, he's doubling down on it again this year, as his curveball is 3rd in the league in spin rate. Not only that, but the movement on this pitch is great. I'll dive into the numbers of it, but I think this also paints quite the picture:

   Awful blocking by Jose Lobaton, by the way. The Mets were losing 9-0 though, so I'll give him the pass here.

   The point though is that not only does Lugo have ridiculous spin on the pitch, but the movement is also amazing. To put it in a numbers perspective, he gets 7.2 inches of horizontal movement and 9.9 inches of drop. This has translated to an average exit velocity of 84.6 MPH, and a launch angle of -6.5 degrees on the pitch. Batters wRC+ against the pitch this year? A paltry 24. The way I typed that up was as anticlimactic as the contact batters have made against his curveball.

   What's interesting about his curve is that for a pitch with as much spin and movement as his has, it doesn't generate a whole lot of whiffs. Batters have only swung and missed at 19.23% of the curves they took a swing at.

   This can be attributed to bad location of the pitch. This is how Lugo has located his curveball so far this season:

   And here is where he located his curveball up until this season

   As you can see, he has tended to leave his curve more toward the middle of the strike zone. Now, it is never a good idea to leave any pitch right down the middle, but to leave a breaking ball there will lead to disastrous results. It also helps to explain why he has not been getting the swings and misses a pitch like that should be getting. 

   Take a look at current curveball whiff leader, Zack Godley's location with the pitch:

   Godley hardly leaks the pitch over the heart of the plate, and consistently gets hitters to chase the pitch. His main reason the pitch is so good is because of this, and his stellar release point with the pitch, rather than spin rate. However, it is safe to say that Godley's curve is a good comparison for Lugo's curve; strictly because they both possess qualities that put them at the same level of effectiveness and quality. 

   That is why I think that Lugo should work on throwing his curve outside the zone and get batters to chase the pitch out of the zone. We saw from the GIF above what he can do to hitters when he does throw that hammer out of the zone. 

   Lugo's curve has the potential to be a supreme whiff getter, but I don't think that Lugo's strikeout potential begins and ends with the curveball. Lugo also has a highly effective fastball, and it is fascinating to see how much of a swing and miss pitch it has become this season:

   There are a few reasons for this, and one such reason is that Lugo has let it loose with his velocity following his move to the bullpen. He is throwing a career high average of 93.7 MPH with his 

fastball. Not only that, but it also has an above average spin rate of 2290 RPM, and is right alongside strikeout aficionado Chris Sale, and is higher than Robbie Ray and Trevor Bauer.  

   As much as someone like Ray has a lower spin and lower velocity fastball than Lugo, he still generates far more whiffs. In fact, Ray places in the top 35 in whiff rate on the fastball. How can this 

be? Well, take a look at his fastball location compared to Lugo:

   Lugo does a nice job throwing the fastball at the high inside corners, but leaks it out over the middle too much, and as seen with Rays pitch chart, the former does an excellent job at keeping the fastball high and getting reaction swings high and out of the zone. 

   Ray may not have good control or command, but his gameplan of keeping the fastball high to ensure swings and misses/weak contact with the fastball is a great one. This is especially true since he can use this to keep hitters off balance when throwing his breaking balls (particularly his wipeout slider) down in the zone. 

   The strategy for Lugo here is simple, throw the curveball more than 30% of the time (he's throwing it around 27% this season; that's not bad, but can be higher), while working on keeping it low and borderline outside the zone to get hitters to chase. However, he should also keep his fastball high in the zone and change up the eye level of the hitters. 

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   I also would call for Lugo to ditch the slider, as that pitch has done him no favors. Its a pitch that has very little horizontal movement, and moves downward a little bit, but is overall a weak pitch. It is clear the loud contact and overall success against it has made the pitch awful this season (and hadn't been a strong choice in the past). 

   Its a good idea in theory to throw a sinker (as I suggested that for Matt Harvey), but for Lugo, it is 

also a weak pitch. The movement on it has been decent, but it just hasn't been getting results. I wouldn’t give up on the pitch just yet though. He needs to locate that further down in the zone, as he is right in the middle of the pack in average height of the pitch (which is 2.28 feet, which ranks 68th). 

   In conclusion, Lugo would be best off making his slider usage nearly nonexistent, throwing his curve lower/his fastball higher, locating his sinker lower in the zone, and maybe throw the changeup a little more often (9.8% usage, but has had some very intriguing results in a small sample this year).

   Essentially, he just needs to improve his command. Even if he improved it a little bit, that could do wonders for him. Truth be told, Lugo has all the tools to become a strikeout ace, and if he harnesses those tools, he will be a very interesting asset for the Mets. 

   All Stats and Info are accurate as of May 1st, and are courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball