MLB Draft: Who Should the Mets Select?

 

   With the 2018 MLB First Year Player Draft set to take place from June 4th through the 6th, it is time for all 30 MLB teams to further stockpile for the future. With a greater emphasis placed on MLB teams having a streamline of young talent in their organization, the draft has become a great place for teams to further this process. With this in mind, one will wonder how the Mets should go about their draft selection in this upcoming draft.

   Now, I am not going to cover every single round for the Mets, but rather, the first two rounds. With that in mind, here are who I believe would be ideal fits for the team in each round.

First Round: Jonathan India 

   A player like Georgia Tech Catcher, Joey Bart would be a far better fit for the Mets, mainly due to the Mets unsure future at Catcher (Tomas Nido is fine, but doesn't scream Catcher of the future). However, Bart is also projected to go within the first four or five picks (I can see the White Sox or Reds picking him), and the Mets pick 6th. 

   However, India would be a fantastic get for the Mets, as the University of Florida standout has shot up the draft boards this season, and rightfully so. I'm realizing now that there a quite a few sites that would agree with this sentiment.

   India has posted fantastic stats this season, and has shown a remarkable improvement in his power, as it has shot up by 200 points! His previous mark was .155, and this year it was at .365, unbelievable. 

   Obviously the metal bats are a factor in inflated power numbers, but this mark shows that India will certainly have enough power to be a big league contributor. I'm projecting him to show above average power in the majors. 

   India made huge improvements to his discipline this past season, as after posting solid walk numbers between 8 and 9% his first two seasons, he walked at a 19% clip this season, while also striking out 19% of the time. 

   His strikeout rate did rise a bit from the past two seasons, but that's not too concerning due to how it wasn't bad, and his upticks in walks and power. Overall, I could see him being a 9-12% walker while striking out 22-25% of the time in the majors; not bad. 

   Overall, India has a relaxed stance, and loads his hands in a way where he can quickly get to the baseball, and put some authority behind his swings. He has good, albeit not spectacular bat speed. It's certainly good enough where he can turn on big league fastballs. 

 
   India also has the defense to stick at third, as he has the athleticism and footwork to get to balls, and should have no problem getting to them at the big league level. He also can make great plays like this:


 
   Overall, I'd project India as a .275-.280 hitter with 18-20 homer/.180-.205 power (in today's environment; less if the baseballs are what they were before last year) potential with a 10% walk and 25% strikeout rate while being a slightly above average defender at third base.

   India at the very least seems like a safe bet to make the majors quickly, and become a contributor to the team sooner rather than later (which works nicely, as Todd Frazier's deal expires after the 2019 season, and I believe India can make a case to debut and eventually start at third either in 2020 or the team gets a stopgap before he starts in 2021, which won't be as likely as the former).

   I believe that with the Mets current window of contention, the best route is to go for college bats that will quickly rise up the system with this pick. With that in regard, India would be the best choice.

Alternate Option for First Round Pick:

   The Mets can also go about selecting Florida Righty Jackson Kowar (who has great stuff, but iffy results), Mississippi Lefty Ryan Rollison or the toolsy Outfielder Jarred Kelenic. In selecting one of these lower selection projected players, this can help them in the second round. 

   That's because they can sign one of these players for under slot value so they can be able to then convince a high school prospect with sign-ability concerns to sign for over slot value. The Mets currently have a slot bonus of $5.5 million, and signing a player for below slot value would free up a good amount of money to pull this off.

   Personally though, I like India, but the team also has prospect Mark Vientos (who performed well last season despite only playing as a 17 year old) coming up in the system. However, I am a big advocate of teams selecting the best player available over all else with an early round pick. If both players are on the fast track to the majors, that is a good problem to have, as it can create trade opportunities to improve any weakness the club may have in the future.

Second Round: 

Option 1: Nander De Sedas

   He was considered to be a top ten pick going into the new year, but has disappointed in his senior season over at Montverde Academy. However, he has tons of raw power, and has been able to tap into that during games. On top of that, he has shown the defense to be able to stick at short as he moves up in the system. 

   There are some concerns due to how his advanced approach he showed going into his senior season had regressed, but with professional coaching, he can tap back into that approach. 

   Now yes, the old saying I like to state is that a player is who he is. However, De Sedas has shown this approach in the past, and it's not like the team would be trying to completely revamp his swing or anything. 

   De Sedas has good swing mechanics from the right side of the plate, and despite uninspiring bat speed, he can still turn on pitches and hit them a long way. He is new to switch hitting, and very well could convert to being strictly a right handed hitter if he struggles hitting lefty as a pro.  

   De Sedas also has incredible defense, and despite his average to below average speed, will likely stick at short if he makes the majors. On top of that, expect him to be a well above average defender to the point that any offensive contributions he makes will make him a highly valuable major leaguer.

   Overall, he is someone who would be a long term project, as I'd peg his ETA closer to 2022-2023. There is a high risk, high reward element with De Sedas, as if he makes the majors and reaches his upside, I could legitimately see him becoming at least a 2.5-3 per year (maybe even flirting with being a 4) win player in the majors with the combination of power and defense he provides at the shortstop position.

   His floor though is not high at all, and worst case, he may not even make the majors. Again, De Sedas is a boom or bust prospect here.

Option 2: Lenny Torres Jr.

   The Mets have the 48th overall pick, so even after the two competitive balance rounds, the team still will have plenty of talent to pick from. 

   Personally, I really want the Mets to pick Lenny Torres Jr., but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets selected in one of the competitive balance rounds. If not, the Mets need to jump on him, and try to sign him to over slot value (if they can get India to sign for slightly under slot value). 

   Realistically though, I think someone will scoop up the hard thrower before the Mets get the chance. 

Option 3: Kris Bubic

   In the event that Torres gets picked before the Mets, I think that Kris Bubic would be the best selection for the Mets. The Stanford lefty has good deception in his delivery, and the way he winds back/keeps his weight back in the delivery reminds me a lot of Clayton Kershaw. 

   Now, obviously I am not comparing the two, but the deception created by giving a bit of pause in the wind back is very similar. 

   Bubic sits in the early 90's, and when combining that with the deceptive delivery, it can cause a lot of late swings. On top of the fastball, he has a curve that is developing. It has pretty fine movement, and can project into an average big league offering, but he still leaves it up at times.

   His change, though, is what has scouts salivating. This is what MLB.com had to say about his change,

  "He has one of the best changeups in the Draft class, a true out pitch he sells well by keeping his arm speed and slot the same as his fastball. He can go to it multiple times in a row and still miss bats with it or get weak fly ball contact." 

   Bubic posted good stats this season, as he struck out 86 in 74 innings (a 10.46 K/9), and a 2.55 ERA. His 3.41 BB/9 has me feeling a little bullish on his command, but I have a feeling he won't struggle with it too much as a professional.

   His delivery may be deceptive, but I noticed that his mechanics aren't great, as he has a bit of "flat arm syndrome". Essentially, his arm is parallel to the dirt at front foot strike, and this tends to create a lot of stress within the elbow and shoulder.

   Despite this, there has been history of pitchers displaying flat arm syndrome still seeing some success with their arm health.

   Funny enough, Bubic with his low 90's fastball, odd/deceptive delivery, promising secondary offerings and the ability to generate weak contact and get good results reminds me a lot of Alex Wood, but with better strikeout numbers, and worse walk numbers.

  I would project Bubic as someone that has relatively low risk making the majors, provided he stays healthy. On top of that, I can see him becoming anywhere between a #3 to a backend starter in the Majors.

   A special thanks is in order to sites like The Baseball Cube and MLB.com for all stats and scouting reports