Is Jon Gray Becoming an Ace?

Courtesy of the Denver Post

   For the first time in Rockies history, they may finally have an ace. His name is Jon Gray. This guy shut down the great hitting Angels the other night, and as much as this is only a three start sample of dominance, it certainly cannot be ignored due to the high level of talent that Gray possesses. In fact, it appears he has made some adjustments, and if he can keep those up, he can be the ace that he was once projected to be.


   Now in terms of the Rockies having an ace, I guess Ubaldo Jimenez counts depending on who you talk to, and what qualifies as an ace. To me though, he was amazing for two years, and very good for two others, then he was on and off before being awful last year. For the most part, he was a number two (which is still great). Point being here is that the Rockies (and Coors Field, in particular) have long had a reputation for being a hitters paradise and a pitchers nightmare.

   As much as Gray has performed poorly at Coors by ERA standards with one well over 4, his FIP stands at 3.41 there. Personally, as much as Coors will always keep his BABIP in the .320s-.330s, I can see the ERA meeting closer to his FIP because he is a great strikeout pitcher and limits free passes.

   Gray is currently striking batters out at a 25.3% clip, putting him in the top 30 among starters thus far. He is also only walking 5.7% of the batters he faces, and currently sits in the top 20 in K/BB%.

   What's interesting about Gray's strikeout ability is that he is pretty awful in terms of spin rate.

	Fastball	Slider	Curve
Jon Gray	2091	2168	2446
Average	2263	2393	2498

Data is courtesy of Statcast from Baseball Savant

   As you can see, Gray is well below average with his two primary pitches in the fastball and slider, while the curve is fine, but still below average. However, Gray possesses a potent mid 90's fastball (as he averages between 95-96 mph the past two seasons with the pitch). On top of that, he locates the pitch high in the zone, as his average pitch height with the fastball stands at 2.53 feet. This ranks among the top 45 to this point.

   His location with the pitch has also gotten better, as he's avoided the middle of the plate far better so far.

2015-17

 2018

   And here's how he's located the pitch in his last three starts:

   Small sample size be damned, that is some impressive location with the pitch. Locating a hard thrown fastball at the corner and high like that is a recipe for success.

   Going into his start on April 25th, it was clear that Gray wasn't fooling anyone, as he had a chase rate of 24% and a zone contact rate of 87% while only having a swinging strike rate of 10.3%.

   Now let's talk about the slider. He throws the pitch incredibly hard at an average of 89.4 mph with the pitch. What's fascinating about it though is that the movement on it is nothing special (as it doesn't get a lot of movement, with only 3.1 inches of horizontal movement, and less than an inch of drop).

   Despite this, the pitch has a high whiff rate, and ranks 21st in whiff rate. My theory is that the pitch gets late movement (almost like a cutter)

   That's not a crap ton of movement, but what it does do is that it looks like the speed of a regular fastball, and then darts away from the batter at the last minute. Basically, a cutter. This has helped contribute to batters posting a weak 61 wRC+ against the pitch this year.

   It's helped his cause that he has been throwing this pitch more often in 2018, and has actually increased his curveball usage as well. He's kept the pitch far lower this year than in previous seasons, and it has paid dividends for him, as batters have a swinging strike rate of 19.4% against that pitch this year (and whiff rate against the slider is up this year too).

   It is clear that Gray has made the necessary adjustments to take a major step forward, but I'd be lying if I said he's gonna become Max Scherzer or anything. Truth of the matter is that Gray will never be able to escape Coors Field so long as he is a Colorado Rockie.

   Yes, he has a fine average exit velocity against of 87.7 mph, and a well below launch angle against of 7.5 degrees. And yes, he does have very nice looking strikeout to walk ratios. However, there was a very nice piece on fangraphs that detailed how Rockies pitchers dramatically under perform their peripherals.
 
   I don't think Gray will be the low 4's ERA pitcher that was suggested in the article, but I project him to be mid-high 3's ERA pitcher (if I had to put an exact number, I'd say in the 3.50-3.80 range). I also see him continuing the high rate of strikeouts, while limiting walks and homers (a career HR/9 under 1 is impressive as it is nowadays, but also in Coors is highly impressive).

   If Gray can put up these types of numbers/production while throwing 175-185 innings (sad to say that's considered really good, but this is the age of bullpen management we live in now), he can most certainly be the ace that the Rockies have long clamored for.

All Stats and Info are current as of May 10th, and are courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Savant