How Tyler Glasnow Can Break Out

 

Courtesy of Pittsburgh Post Gazette

    The Pirates are currently 26-20, and have been a pleasant surprise so far. They may only be sitting 4th in the NL Central, but the difference between them and the first place Brewers is only 2 games. They have had some great contributions from their roster, and I believe there is one player in particular that can break out by the end of the year and be yet another contributor, and that guy is Tyler Glasnow.
 
   Glasnow was once ranked as the Pirates top prospect by sites like MLB.com, and there has always been a lot to like about the 6'8 right hander. Glasnow has always had a good fastball, but he has bumped it up, as it now averages 96 mph. This is likely due to him pitching out of the bullpen, but it is still encouraging to see regardless.

   His fastball also has a wicked amount of spin, as his 2450 RPM on the pitch ranks 6th among all pitchers (minimum 300 thrown). A fastball with a lot of spin creates what is referred to as a "rising" fastball, and Glasnow's fastball has that appearance:



   On top of a hard thrown fastball with tons of spin, Glasnow also has nasty secondary offerings as well. He has a wipeout curveball that has a ton of drop, and some good horizontal movement. His curve ranks in the top 10 in average drop, and quite frankly, the 10 average inches of drop he gets on the pitch is utterly ridiculous. It also has an average spin rate of 2862 RPM, which ranks as the seventh highest amount of spin for a curve (minimum 100 curves thrown).

   Glasnow does a good job at keeping the pitch low in the zone (as his average pitch height with it is at 1.75 feet). Because of these factors, Glasnow currently has a 28.6 whiff/swing percentage with his curve. As much as he has been keeping the pitch low, he could stand to also take advantage of the horizontal movement with it by throwing it a tad lower, and toward the left handed batters box to invite more chases. Take a look at how Charlie Morton (6th in whiffs per swing, and has a very similar curve to Glasnow) throws his curve:

   And here is how Collin McHugh (also in the top ten in whiffs per swing with the curve) has thrown his:

   As you can see, these two pitchers are able to throw just enough curves in the zone to keep the pitch from being predictable, but they primarily locate it at shin level, and within the direction of the left handed batters box. Here is where Glasnow throws his curve:

  Glasnow's pitch location isn't awful, but it doesn't properly play up the potential of his hammer curve.



  To his credit though, he has allowed an 86 mph average exit velocity on the pitch, which is not outstanding, but is still below the average mark of 87 mph. On top of that, hitters have essentially pounded the pitch into the ground with an average launch angle of 1.6 degrees. This has led to a .095 ISO on the pitch, and makes me think that despite a wRC+ against of 98, he has had some awful batted ball luck throwing the pitch, and will likely stifle hitter productivity.

   Despite all of this, Glasnow needs to throw his curveball down in the zone, and essentially bury it similar to Morton and McHugh. With those two following that process, they have been able to unlock the swing and miss potential on their curves, as Morton has also allowed only a .100 ISO against, and a wRC+ of 3, not anything else, just 3! McHugh, meanwhile, has not allowed an extra base hit on his curve this season, and as for wRC+ against? Oh, only a meager -27. Geez.

   Essentially, this all just feels like more of a guide for pitchers with high spin, high movement curves to locate the pitch. However, it is imperative for a pitcher to locate the pitch within that spot, as that is the best way to play up the pitch and turn it into a strikeout pitch. It would not apply for all pitchers, as there are some that are far better locating it low and within the strike zone to generate ground balls and weak fly balls.

   On top of having effective strikeout pitches in the fastball and curve, Glasnow also has started to throw in more sliders this season. His spin rate with the pitch is also ridiculous, as it is at 2887 RPM, which surprise, would rank in the top 10 in the league.

   In a small sample size with the pitch (he's only thrown 20 sliders to this point), he's gotten good depth out of it, and the horizontal movement has been solid enough that it differs from a curve. He has also shown great results with the pitch, as it has allowed a -100 wRC+ against, not been hit for extra bases and in the 7 times it has been swung at, hitters have whiffed 4 times, a staggering 57%!

   This is basically the theme with Glasnow. His spin rate and overall velocity/movement are too incredible to ignore, and yes, he does have serious command issues. The same was said about Sean Newcomb going into this year, and as much as he does have bouts with this, he has also improved his command from being awful to at least passable.

   Truth be told, I don't think Glasnow will ever fully overcome his command issues. However, if he can at least limit them, and trim the walk rate from his current rate of 12.3% to between 10-11.5%, that could be all the difference he needs. Essentially, if he can do this, and fully harness his pure strikeout arsenal, he will break out, and become an ace in this league.

All stats and info are accurate as of May 23, and are courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Savant