Francisco Cervelli = Elite?

 

Image from CBS Pittsburgh

   April is a crazy month. Stars perform badly, and bad players perform like stars. However, there are a few players that have a good first month of the season and parlay that into a full five more months of excellence. You'll see the wRC+ leaderboard and see some interesting names. Sitting within the top 20? Francisco Cervelli. Wow.

   Cervelli has proven to be a solid hitting catcher in the past, but he hadn't posted an above average wRC+ since 2015; he had posted a 117 that year. He currently sits at the number 19 spot in wRC+ so far this season, and this cannot be chalked up to batted ball luck.

   When looking at his ISO, he has far and away posted a career high with a .256 (he never had an ISO exceeding .121 in a full season of plate appearances).

   Like I mentioned before, he isn't getting luck on batted balls, as his BABIP stands at .323, which would actually be his second lowest total since 2014!

   It is important to mention that he is striking out far less, as he is only striking out at a 15.2% clip, well below his already low K rate in recent years. This must be because he is swinging more often right? Especially when you see his reduced walk rate, you'd think this is the case. The answer though is a strong no.

   Cervelli has swung at roughly the same amount of pitches out of the zone, and his 20.6 outside swing% is in the top 20 in the majors. He's also swung at the most pitches he's seen in the zone since joining the Pirates.

   Swinging at more pitches in the zone while spitting on those out of the zone is obviously a great recipe for hitting success. He has also hit more balls in the air, as he has a fly ball % of 50%, the highest of his career! And it's not even close. This is backed by his average launch angle of 19 degrees, far exceeding the launch angles he has put up in any year.

   So clearly, Cervelli has jumped on the flyball revolution bandwagon. Not only has he been hitting the ball in the air with more frequency, but he has also put the ball in the air with more authority. He is averaging 95 mph on fly balls and line drives, once again, that is a career high.

   What I find interesting about Cervelli is that he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses (aside from the changeup, but that's always been a weakness of his). He used to have difficulties hitting curves and sliders, but he has a wRC+ of 228 against those pitches this season, far better than any mark he's posted against the two pitches. He's also posted an ISO of .269 against them, which ranks 16th in the majors. A good reason for this is the whiff rate he's had against these pitches:

   This is a huge turnaround for Cervelli against curves and sliders, and he has not sacrificed his productivity against fastballs either, as his ISO is at .277 against them.

   What is interesting for Cervelli this season is that he has been looking to swing at pitches higher in the zone than usual. He is currently in the top 40 for average pitch height on his swings, as he swings on average at pitches 2.39 feet high. This is a huge difference compared to the 2.24 mark he posted in 2016-17. It may not appear to be a difference, but this season that 2.24 would've ranked 180th of 270 qualified hitters.

   This is an intriguing approach due to how teams have looked to have their pitchers attack hitters with high fastballs. However, Cervelli has made the adjustment back (as baseball is a physical and difficult game of chess), and it has worked well for him thus far.

   Here is how he had previously gone about swinging at fastballs:

   And here is how he's been going about swinging at fastballs this season:

   He has been hunting for fastballs on the high inside corner, and on the parts of the zone that are up and in, middle-inside and high-middle, he has an ISO of .250.

   Something that I noticed was a change in his batting stance. Here's his stance in 2016:

   And here's how it looks this season:

   He's more vertical in his stance, and appears to be keeping his weight back throughout his stance this season. Overall, he appears far more relaxed this season. I also noticed differences in his hand load, and how his hips turn a lot quicker than they did before. I am no expert on hitting, but those were some differences that I noticed in his swing.

   My verdict is that Cervelli is indeed a new man with a revamped approach. I have no idea if he'll continue to tear up opposing pitchers like he has so far this season, but it does appear that his power resurgence is for real. Combo that with his lowered strikeout rate, and health permitting, you have yourself a guy primed for a fantastic season. 

   All stats and info are accurate as of May 1st, and are courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball