What Is Going On With Matt Harvey?


Image from NY Sports Day
 This is the $150 million dollar question that Matt Harvey may never get the answer to. Truth of the matter is, once upon a time, he had a chance of being signed to this kind of contract. He certainly would've gotten interest for that kind of contract had he suddenly been let into the open market in 2013. However, 2013 feels so long ago (even 2015 at this point) and Harvey is just not the same guy. I believe though that there is still a chance for him to salvage a career that was heading down the drain years ago.

   Attitude 

   First things first, Harvey needs to fix his attitude, and he needs to fix it fast. The following is what Harvey had to say to reporters when being asked about his move to the bullpen:


   Take this into consideration when listening to the following comments from Chris Archer after being rocked by the Phillies a few weeks ago (while enduring struggles that dated back to last September).
"It's already gone," Archer said. "It's been gone. Been gone since the second inning of that game. If you make a couple of hundred starts in the big leagues, you're going to have ones that are really, really good and ones that are no good.
"I've had other tough starts. Just understand it's a long season. And after all that [stuff] happened in the second inning, I actually threw pretty well. I understand coming out of the game because of a high volume of pitches. But I wish I could have stayed out there, because I kind of started getting into a groove. And that's continued, like in my bullpens and throwing sessions. So I'm feeling good going into Friday."
   Seeing as how he got obliterated by the Phillies and had been struggling for a little while, he was very cool, calm and collected. He is a pitcher that believes in his ability, and doesn't let the difficulties he's faced get to him. His next start? He had a nice bounceback start against the Twins in which he went 6 and 2/3 innings and gave up two earned runs.

   Now, this isn't meant to be a piece strictly to praise Archer, but the point I am making is clear. A successful Major Leaguer needs to believe in themselves, and to stay confident and maintain a good attitude regardless of what is going on. If not, well, they're gonna find themselves out of the league fast. If Harvey wants to avoid that fate, then he needs to improve his attitude.

The Fastball

   He won't want to admit this, but his fastball has been on the decline for years now.



   His overall ineptitude with the fastball can easily be written off as a drop in velocity, but it has also seen a steep drop in spin rate each year as well. However, a fastball can still be effective when located properly, but unfortunately, Harvey has failed to do that as well.

Matt Harvey 2016-18

Matt Harvey 2012-15

   As you can see, Harvey located his fastball higher in the zone (which may not work as well for him now with the decline in spin and velocity), but the point here is that he was avoiding throwing fastballs down the middle of the plate in comparison to how he seemingly lived on the middle inside part of the plate with his fastball; a surefire recipe for giving up homers. 

   I suggest that he throw the fastball lower in the zone, and toward the corners (particularly the arm side). What made me think of this is that Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Dodgers does the same exact thing with his low spin, low velocity fastball (and makes for a great comparison for Harvey due to the injury history both pitchers have had).  

Image from ESPN

Time To Mix It Up

   Ryu has also shown a great pitch mix by throwing in cutters, changeups and offspeed pitches to keep hitters off balance, but I believe that he has a great template for how a pitcher with lower velocity and lower spin on his fastball can use it to approach hitters. 

   I believe that similar to Ryu, Harvey can benefit from using the fastball less (Ryu's four seamer percentage has gone from in the low-mid 50's to now a low 38.9% this season!). 

   As for what Harvey can throw in place of the four seamer, I think that perhaps he can increase his slider usage and throw in some more sinkers (the sinker seems to at least be a solid offering in the small samples it was seen). 

   I also am a firm believer in the fact that Harvey can be a significant beneficiary of throwing in far more curveballs and sliders. This is a great reason why:


   Look at that beautiful drop this year. Now, yes, his stuff in general had been declining for years before that, but seeing how much hitters have been making weak contact against these pitches cannot be ignored. On his curveballs and sliders, hitters have an average exit velocity of 84.7 MPH, and an average launch angle of 2.7 degrees. 

   Harvey has the 45th lowest total exit velocity allowed on these pitches, and is lower than breaking ball artists like Aaron Nola, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and Charlie Morton.

   Using the breaking balls more often is an unconventional approach, but more and more, pitchers are using it. It basically started with the aforementioned Rich Hill and has been made famous by Lance McCullers (to the point that now throwing a breaking pitch as the primary pitch has been named after him). 

   I am not suggesting that these pitches will suddenly turn back the clock and Harvey will be just outside the elite in strikeout rate again (which could suggest that he may never have been much of a high spin pitcher even before it started being tracked). 

   What I am suggesting though is that with his still pristine low walk rate, he can become a highly effective pitch to contact type of pitcher. Perhaps he can even strike out more batter than a typical pitch to contact type pitcher. 

Conclusion

Courtesy of Newsday
   I am sure that this may have been suggested to him in the past, but he was too stubborn to actually implement this approach. You know what though? I can understand why.

   Professional athletes have been winners for the entirety of their lives, and have essentially never dealt with failure. They have always been the best among their peers all throughout their youth, in high school and likely even in college. For a player like Harvey, he was among the best in the Minors and even the best player (albeit, briefly) on the Mets, a Major League Team!

   For Matt, this has likely been a very tough pill to swallow, and never actually learned how to deal with failure in his life. Again, that is not his fault, and to now have to deal with such a significant amount of failure in a short period of time would be difficult to overcome for anyone in his situation. 

   I believe that he has done a solid job in cleaning up his delivery (particularly with moving to the plate quicker), but there are possibly other parts of his delivery that he needs to work on. I don't fully know (mainly because there is not a lot of video for me to dissect), as well as the fact that I know pitching very well, but I do not compare to the sage like pitching coaches in the Majors. 

   Dave Eiland is a smart man (and same certainly goes to Mickey Callaway), and I would like to think that they have a good approach as to rejuvenating Matt Harvey. However, if they need a different game plan, I do believe that what I found and suggested could certainly be worth a try to revive the former star pitcher.  

   All Stats and Information is Courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball 

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